Here's what the NL Central looks like:
| W | L | GB | |
|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 85 | 53 | --- |
| MIL | 80 | 57 | 4.5 |
| STL | 74 | 64 | 11.0 |
| HOU | 72 | 66 | 13.0 |
| CIN | 61 | 76 | 23.5 |
| PIT | 57 | 79 | 27.0 |
For most of the season the Birds have been right at the Cubs' heels. But recently it seems like whenever the Cardinals win, the Cubs win and no ground is gained. Then the Cards lose... and the Cubs continue to win. St. Louis was only two games back as recently as July 22nd, but since then the gap has grown wider. Now the team trails by 11 games and a division title is all but lost.
Of course there's always the Wild Card, but if the Cardinals continue to drop consecutive games (they lost their 4th straight last night... they had a five game losing streak in July) then they'll lose out to the Brewers, Mets, or Phillies. I've remained hopeful (but realistic) this entire season, and if the Cardinals make it into the playoffs it'll be close.
There's the 2006 season to draw inspiration from when, as you'll recall, the Redbirds made it into the postseason having won only 83 games and closed the year by defeating the Tigers in the World Series. Conditions favored the Cardinals that year (the NL Central was lousy and only the Mets provided any sort of competitive challenge), but it was enough to demonstrate that all teams start at 0-0 in the postseason, and anything could happen afterwards.
St. Louis really should be doing better at this point, but they can't seem to defeat the teams that matter. They're 37-24 against teams from the other two divisions, but 30-32 against their NL Central neighbors. The Cubs and Brewers on the other hand are 38-24 and 39-25, respectively. The Birds have also lost a lot of extra-inning games -- a Major League leading 10 -- and are 21-23 in 1-run games. All those winning opportunities, lost (so to speak).But if the Mets are able to take late-season dives, and if the Cubs are famous for them, then so too can the Cardinals take a... what's the opposite of "dive"? And until St. Louis is mathematically eliminated I will remain hopeful and look forward to another postseason appearance.
