Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Can I be in your club too?

I was checking out the all-time strikeout list when I wondered which active pitchers have a shot at the 3,000 mark. Obviously Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz are right there, with 2,998 and 2,926, respectively. Mike Mussina has a decent chance, as does Andy Pettitte. But then I saw a name that took me by surprise.

Javier Vasquez? Could have 3,000 career strikeouts? Really?

He gives up a lot of hits, a lot of them for home runs, and has struggled in his two previous American League seasons. He's also a bit wild, having drilled 15 batters last year. But he might be the good kind of wild, the wild that keeps a hitter from determining if the next pitch will be over the plate or in his ear.

Vasquez has never led the league in strikeouts, but he's been healthy and he's been consistent. Twice he's topped the 200 strikeout mark, and from 2000 to 2006 he's averaged 193 a year. This season he's already at 157. Those aren't overwhelming numbers, but extrapolate those numbers over a twenty year career and you've got something.

In ten big league seasons Vasquez has 1,759 strikeouts. He also just turned 31. If he's able to stick around for seven more seasons, and if he stays as healthy as he's been up to this point, then he's got a good shot at the 3,000 mark. That may not guarantee him a spot in the Hall of Fame (see also Bert Blyleven), but it's a prestigious accomplishment nonetheless.